How AI Can Enhance Climate Modeling and Forecasting
Climate modeling is essential for the fight against climate change. Using Artificial Intelligence (AI), geologists and meteorologists can create detailed forecasts of global weather systems that can accurately predict future climates. As shifts in global weather patterns continue to make significant impacts on human habitats, it has become increasingly important for scientists to develop new solutions to this man-made problem.
Fortunately, Deep Learning has the potential to create meaningful improvements in computer science that can help lead us closer to a net-zero society. Although it is an incredibly daunting task that requires everyone to rethink how industry production can maintain stability, Machine Learning algorithms offer complex pattern recognition abilities that can process data into meaningful insights that can help expand green technology.
What is Climate Modeling?
Climate modeling is a method that is used to analyze and predict the Earth’s diverse weather patterns and climate systems. They use a variety of equations that stem from physics, chemistry, and biology to determine things like how heat is transferred between the oceans and the atmosphere or the impact of CO2 emissions.
The modeling process begins by placing Earth’s different climates into a grid where data can be mapped out for observation. Grid lines can range from just a few kilometers to hundreds of kilometers to capture the extent of our planet’s unique biomes and environments. Within each grid box is detailed information including temperature, humidity, windspeed, etc.
Components of a climate model include:
Boundary conditions: Factors for a model that include land positions and atmospheric composition. Initial conditions consider conditions at the start of a model’s use such as temperature.
Scenario simulations: Many models run simulations that let scientists observe how conditions can change. This can help create more accurate predictions by simulating different control and test groups.
Feedback mechanisms: This allows models to adjust their climate measurements by balancing changing conditions to represent real-world changes like how ice melting affects global temperatures.
Traditional Challenges in Climate Modeling
Despite climate modeling’s ability to support scientists with accurate predictions and results, there are still many hurdles that need to be overcome. One of the major issues is the holistic nature of Earth’s climate. While the Earth has many different ecosystems around the world, they are all interconnected and influence weather on a global scale. Similar to the butterfly effect, what happens deep in the ocean somewhere can have major impacts on a different biome miles away.
The scale of Earth’s climate systems is also hard to capture entirely within one model. Influences on our weather can stem from elements as minor as water droplets that form clouds to massive objects like the sun and solar flares. While we have the tools to monitor all of these variables, they each require their own specific technology to do so accurately.
Using the right equipment can also become a drain on resources because data comes from many different sources and spans decades to centuries which creates massive datasets. This computational demand can strain budgets that rely purely on outside funding like research centers or universities.
How AI Fits Into Climate Science
Artificial Intelligence plays a vital role in climate modeling’s need for more powerful technology. Machine Learning, and its subset Deep Learning, allow models to process massive amounts of data that can be used to create actionable insights.
These systems can self-improve, refining their processing abilities over time with past results by identifying patterns in datasets. By using historical weather data, AI algorithms can predict temperature fluctuation over long periods.
For more precise measurements and predictions, Neural Networks can go beyond basic identification abilities and also begin classifying climate data. This can reveal new layers of insights that can help detect weather anomalies but also analyze satellite imagery.
The benefits of Using AI in Climate Modeling include:
Enhanced Data Analysis: AI can process information on a significantly larger scale than humans. They can also process this information faster, giving humans more time to work with the given results.
Pattern Recognition: AI models are capable of identifying small patterns that would be difficult for humans to detect because they may range over decades of data or only display the smallest variations.
Predictive Analysis: AI uses historical and real-time data to make predictions about future weather conditions. These datasets can also help the system adjust its analytical abilities.
Real-world Applications and Successes
As climate change becomes an increasing concern to many around the world, AI applications in climate modeling are becoming more common among many of the world’s largest corporations. These endeavors offer benefits on two fronts for many businesses, once they can help mitigate the effects of climate change, but they are also finding new opportunities to develop their AI systems and create more robust algorithms.
Examples of AI systems being used for climate modeling include:
DeepMind's Rainfall Predictions: Google’s DeepMind AI system has many incredible uses and climate modeling is just one of them. The AI model has helped with rainfall analysis, helping mitigate damages from areas prone to flash flooding.
The Climate Model Downscaling with AI (CMDAI) Project: A localized approach to AI forecasting, this model is especially helpful for providing insights on community-level climate changes that can assist with policy-making and project planning.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR): The NCAR has a strong interest in creating more powerful computational devices using AI to improve their analysis of atmospheric conditions.
IBM's GRAF Model: GRAF utilizes cloud technology to bring immense detail to climate forecasting, allowing scientists to analyze climate zones as small as 3 kilometers wide.
The Ocean Data Alliance: Neural networks are being used to monitor and forecast climates within the ocean as well, especially in coral reefs which are being bleached at an alarming rate.
Microsoft's AI for Earth Program: This program is an all-encompassing initiative from Microsoft that utilizes AI to facilitate not only climate modeling and forecasting but all aspects of fighting climate change.
Future Prospects
Despite AI’s massive potential, time is not on our side when it comes to global warming and its impact on our entire planet. While developments in technology are good, the longer we wait, the more devastation we’ll have to repair.
Fortunately, AI is developing at an exponential rate and could provide us with the necessary tools and insights we need to mitigate the worst of rising sea levels and CO2 emissions; and with greater emphasis on climate-focused policies being pushed by international governing bodies, it is clear that AI’s influence on climate forecasting and green tech will not be ignored.
